Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
