🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest upset.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime also-rans improving in unison. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still